Lutz Kilian

Quantifying the Halflife of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors

Year: 1999
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Tao Zha

Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications

Year: 2000
Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics
Authors: Francis X. Diebold; Lutz Kilian

A Monetary Explanation of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s

Year: 2000
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Robert B. Barsky; Lutz Kilian

Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for the PPP Debate

Year: 2000
Journal: Journal of International Money and Finance
Authors: Mehmet Caner; Lutz Kilian

Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?

Year: 2001
Journal: Journal of International Economics
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Mark P. Taylor

A Practitioners Guide to Lag Order Selection for Vector Autoregressions

Year: 2001
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Ventzislav Ivanov; Lutz Kilian

Insample or Outofsample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?

Year: 2002
Journal: Econometric Reviews
Authors: Atsushi Inoue; Lutz Kilian

The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks

Year: 2003
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Simone Manganelli

On the Selection of Forecasting Models

Year: 2003
Journal: Journal of Econometrics
Authors: Atsushi Inoue; Lutz Kilian

Oil and the Macroeconomy since the 1970s

Year: 2004
Journal: Journal of Economic Perspectives
Authors: Robert Barsky; Lutz Kilian

Bagging Time Series Models

Year: 2004
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Atsushi Inoue; Lutz Kilian

Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s

Year: 2004
Journal: Journal of Economic Perspectives
Authors: Robert Barsky; Lutz Kilian

The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries

Year: 2005
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian

How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of US CPI Inflation

Year: 2005
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Atsushi Inoue; Lutz Kilian

Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big are They and How Much Do They Matter for the US Economy

Year: 2005
Journal: Review of Economics and Statistics
Authors: Lutz Kilian

Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data

Year: 2006
Journal: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Authors: Atsushi Inoue; Lutz Kilian; Fatma Burcu Kiraz

Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market

Year: 2006
Journal: American Economic Review
Authors: Lutz Kilian

The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings: Lessons to be Learned from the US Residential Market for Natural Gas

Year: 2007
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lucas W. Davis; Lutz Kilian

Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures

Year: 2007
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Paul Edelstein; Lutz Kilian

The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses about the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks

Year: 2007
Journal: B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics
Authors: Paul Edelstein; Lutz Kilian

What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?

Year: 2007
Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics
Authors: Ron Alquist; Lutz Kilian

The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks

Year: 2007
Journal: Journal of Economic Literature
Authors: Lutz Kilian

The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the US Stock Market

Year: 2007
Journal: International Economic Review
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Cheolbeom Park

Oil Shocks and External Balances

Year: 2007
Journal: Journal of International Economics
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Alessandro Rebucci; Nikola Spatafora

The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences Under Greenspan

Year: 2007
Journal: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Simone Manganelli

Do Energy Prices Respond to US Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices

Year: 2008
Journal: Review of Economics and Statistics
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Clara Vega

The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the US Residential Market for Natural Gas

Year: 2008
Journal: Journal of Political Economy
Authors: Lucas W. Davis; Lutz Kilian

Why Does Gasoline Cost So Much? A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the US Retail Gasoline Market

Year: 2008
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian

Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks

Year: 2009
Journal: International Finance
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Robert J. Vigfusson

Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation

Year: 2009
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian

Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models

Year: 2009
Journal: Journal of the European Economic Association
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Daniel P. Murphy

Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?

Year: 2009
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Yun Jung Kim

Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models

Year: 2009
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana; Atsushi Inoue; Lutz Kilian

Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions

Year: 2009
Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics
Authors: Lucas W. Davis; Lutz Kilian

Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions

Year: 2009
Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics
Authors: Lucas W. Davis; Lutz Kilian

Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?

Year: 2009
Journal: Journal of Forecasting
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Bruce Hicks

Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?

Year: 2009
Journal: Economic Journal
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Logan Lewis

The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil

Year: 2010
Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Dan Murphy

Forecasting the Price of Oil

Year: 2011
Journal: International Finance
Authors: Ron Alquist; Lutz Kilian; Robert J. Vigfusson

Realtime Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil

Year: 2011
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian

Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models

Year: 2011
Journal: Journal of Econometrics
Authors: Atsushi Inoue; Lutz Kilian

Structural Vector Autoregressions

Year: 2011
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian

Realtime Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios

Year: 2011
Journal: IMF Economic Review
Authors: Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian

Nonlinearities in the Oil Price-Output Relationship

Year: 2011
Journal: Macroeconomic Dynamics
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Robert J. Vigfusson

Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations

Year: 2012
Journal: IMF Economic Review
Authors: Martin Bodenstein; Luca Guerrieri; Lutz Kilian

Do Oil Prices Help Forecast US Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries

Year: 2012
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Robert J. Vigfusson

What Central Bankers Need to Know About Forecasting Oil Prices

Year: 2012
Journal: International Economic Review
Authors: Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian

The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far

Year: 2012
Journal: Energy Journal
Authors: Bassam Fattouh; Lutz Kilian; Lavan Mahadeva

Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach

Year: 2013
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian

Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis

Year: 2013
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou

Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work

Year: 2013
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Christiane Baumeister; Pierre Gurin; Lutz Kilian

Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?

Year: 2013
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian

Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories

Year: 2013
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Thomas K. Lee

Are There Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

Year: 2014
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian; Thomas K. Lee

A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices: With an Application to Crude Oil

Year: 2014
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian

Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models

Year: 2014
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana; Atsushi Inoue; Lutz Kilian

The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on US Oil and Gasoline Prices

Year: 2014
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian

Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses

Year: 2014
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Atsushi Inoue; Lutz Kilian

Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences

Year: 2014
Journal: Annual Review of Resource Economics
Authors: Lutz Kilian

Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump

Year: 2015
Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics
Authors: Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian; Thomas K. Lee

Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand

Year: 2015
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: John Coglianese; Lucas W. Davis; Lutz Kilian; James H. Stock

Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil Since June 2014

Year: 2015
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian

Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand

Year: 2015
Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics
Authors: John Coglianese; Lucas W. Davis; Lutz Kilian; James H. Stock

The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers

Year: 2016
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian

Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us

Year: 2016
Journal: Journal of Economic Perspectives
Authors: Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian

Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?

Year: 2017
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Christiane JS Baumeister; Reinhard Ellwanger; Lutz Kilian

Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Information: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks - Comment

Year: 2018
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou

The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada

Year: 2018
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou

Measuring Global Real Economic Activity: Do Recent Critiques Hold Up to Scrutiny?

Year: 2019
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian

Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling

Year: 2019
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian

Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, and Interest Rates

Year: 2019
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou

Does Drawing Down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?

Year: 2019
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou

A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf

Year: 2020
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Nikos Nomikos; Xiaoqing Zhou

Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities

Year: 2020
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian

The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions

Year: 2020
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Atsushi Inoue; Lutz Kilian

The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models

Year: 2020
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou

Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices, and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts

Year: 2020
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou

Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa, and Read's Narrative Restrictions and Proxies

Year: 2021
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian

Container Trade and the US Recovery

Year: 2021
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Nikos Nomikos; Xiaoqing Zhou

The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on US Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23

Year: 2021
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou

Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings

Year: 2022
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Michael D. Plante; Alexander W. Richter

When Do State-Dependent Local Projections Work?

Year: 2022
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Silvia Goncalves; Ana Maria Herrera; Lutz Kilian; Elena Pesavento

A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks

Year: 2022
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou

Jointly Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks

Year: 2023
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Michael D. Plante; Alexander W. Richter

Heterogeneity in the Pass Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand

Year: 2023
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou

How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises

Year: 2023
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian

Oil Price Shocks and Inflation

Year: 2023
Journal: No Journal Matched
Authors: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou