Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP9823
Authors: Lutz Kilian
Abstract: Research on oil markets conducted during the last decade has challenged long-held beliefs about the causes and consequences of oil price shocks. As the empirical and theoretical models used by economists have evolved, so has our understanding of the determinants of oil price shocks and of the interaction between oil markets and the global economy. Some of the key insights are that the real price of oil is endogenous with respect to economic fundamentals, and that oil price shocks do not occur ceteris paribus. This makes it necessary to explicitly account for the demand and supply shocks underlying oil price shocks when studying their transmission to the domestic economy. Disentangling cause and effect in the relationship between oil prices and the economy requires structural models of the global economy including the oil market.
Keywords: asymmetries; business cycle; channels of transmission; demand; macroeconomy; supply
JEL Codes: Q43
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| oil price shocks (Q43) | global economic fundamentals (F01) |
| global economic fundamentals (F01) | real price of oil (Q31) |
| increases in oil prices (Q31) | economic growth (O49) |
| oil price shocks (Q43) | recessions (E32) |
| flow demand shocks (E39) | oil price fluctuations (Q31) |
| supply disruptions (Q31) | oil price increases (Q31) |
| oil price shocks (Q43) | domestic economic activity (E20) |