Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8414
Authors: Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian
Abstract: We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We document that revisions of the data typically represent news, and we introduce backcasting and nowcasting techniques to fill gaps in the real-time data. We show that real-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases real-time MSPE reductions may be as high as 25 percent one month ahead and 24 percent three months ahead. This result is in striking contrast to related results in the literature for asset prices. In particular, recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) forecasts based on global oil market variables tend to have lower MSPE at short horizons than forecasts based on oil futures prices, forecasts based on AR and ARMA models, and the no-change forecast. In addition, these VAR models have consistently higher directional accuracy. We demonstrate how with additional identifying assumptions such VAR models may be used not only to understand historical fluctuations in the real price of oil, but to construct conditional forecasts that reflect hypothetical scenarios about future demand and supply conditions in the market for crude oil. These tools are designed to allow forecasters to interpret their oil price forecast in light of economic models and to evaluate its sensitivity to alternative assumptions.
Keywords: forecast; oil price; real time; scenario analysis
JEL Codes: C53; E32; Q43
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Realtime forecasts of the real price of oil (Q47) | outperform the no-change forecast (E17) |
| VAR models (C32) | enhance the understanding of historical fluctuations in oil prices (Q31) |
| VAR models (C32) | facilitate the construction of conditional forecasts reflecting hypothetical future demand and supply scenarios (C53) |