Working Paper: NBER ID: w5615
Authors: Phillip B. Levine; Douglas Staiger; Thomas J. Kane; David J. Zimmerman
Abstract: We consider the effect of abortion legalization on births in the United States. A simple theoretical model demonstrates that the impact of abortion legalization on the birth rate is ambiguous, because both pregnancy and abortion decisions could be affected. We use variation in the timing of legalization across states in the early 1970's to estimate the effect of abortion on birth rates. Our findings indicate that states legalizing abortion experienced a 5% decline in births relative to other states. The decline among teens, women over 35, and nonwhite women was even greater: 13%, 8%, and 12% respectively. Out-of-wedlock births declined by twice as much as births in wedlock. If legalization in some states affected birth rates in neighboring states (through travel to obtain an abortion), comparing births between states will underestimate the actual reduction. Using more distant comparison states increases the estimated impact of abortion legalization on birth rates to about 8%. Applying this estimate to the current level of births, a complete recriminalization of abortion would result in 320,000 additional births per year.
Keywords: abortion; fertility; birth rates; Roe v Wade
JEL Codes: I12; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Abortion legalization (J13) | Decline in birth rates (J11) |
| Abortion legalization (J13) | Decline in birth rates among teens (J13) |
| Abortion legalization (J13) | Decline in birth rates among women over 35 (J19) |
| Abortion legalization (J13) | Decline in birth rates among nonwhite women (J79) |
| Abortion legalization (J13) | Decline in out-of-wedlock births (J12) |
| Abortion legalization (J13) | Estimated impact on birth rates (accounting for travel) (J11) |