Working Paper: NBER ID: w26709
Authors: Elizabeth U. Cascio; Naama Shenhav
Abstract: This year marks the centennial of the Nineteenth Amendment, which provided American women a constitutional guarantee to the franchise. We assemble data from a variety of sources to document and explore trends in women’s political participation, issue preferences, and partisanship since that time. We show that in the early years following enfranchisement, women voted at much lower rates than men and held distinct issue preferences, despite splitting their votes across parties similarly to men. But by the dawn of the 21st century, women not only voted more than men, but also voted differently, systematically favoring the Democratic party. We find that the rise in women’s relative voter turnout largely reflects cross-cohort changes in voter participation and coincided with increasing rates of high school completion. By contrast, women’s relative shift toward the Democratic party permeates all cohorts and appears to owe more to changes in how parties have defined themselves than to changes in issue preferences. The findings suggest that a confluence of factors have led to the unique place women currently occupy in the American electorate, one where they are arguably capable of exerting more political influence than ever before.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: I0; J16; K16; N32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increase in women's educational attainment (I24) | Increase in women's voter turnout (K16) |
| Increase in party polarization (D72) | Increase in women's identification with the Democratic Party (J79) |
| Cohort effects (C92) | Increase in women's voter turnout (K16) |
| Time effects (C41) | Shifts in partisanship (D72) |
| Increase in women's voter turnout (K16) | Decrease in female-male sex gap in voter turnout (J19) |
| Increase in women's identification with the Democratic Party (J79) | Increase in sex gap in identification with the Democratic Party (J79) |