Working Paper: NBER ID: w23275
Authors: Felipe Barrera-Osorio; Leigh L. Linden; Juan Saavedra
Abstract: We show that three Colombian conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs for secondary schools improve educational outcomes eight and 12 years after random assignment relative to a control group. Forcing families to save a portion of the transfers until they make enrollment decisions for the next academic year increases on-time enrollment in secondary school, reduces dropout rates, and promotes tertiary enrollment and completion in the long-term. Traditionally structured bimonthly transfers improve on-time enrollment and high school exit exam completion rates in the medium term, but do not affect long-term tertiary outcomes. A delayed transfer that directly incentivizes tertiary enrollment promotes secondary school on-time enrollment and enrollment—only in lower-quality tertiary institutions—in the medium term but not the long term.
Keywords: Conditional Cash Transfers; Education; Randomized Controlled Trials
JEL Codes: C93; I21; I38
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| savings treatment (D14) | on-time secondary school enrollment (I21) |
| savings treatment (D14) | dropout rates (I21) |
| savings treatment (D14) | tertiary enrollment in universities (I23) |
| basic treatment (Y20) | on-time secondary school enrollment (I21) |
| basic treatment (Y20) | probability of taking the secondary graduation exam (C12) |
| tertiary treatment (Q25) | on-time secondary school enrollment (I21) |
| tertiary treatment (Q25) | enrollment in lower-quality tertiary institutions (I23) |
| basic treatment (Y20) | long-term tertiary education outcomes (I26) |