Working Paper: NBER ID: w21393
Authors: Markus Nagler; Marc Piopiunik; Martin R. West
Abstract: How do alternative job opportunities affect teacher quality? We provide causal evidence on this question by exploiting business cycle conditions at career start as a source of exogenous variation in the outside options of potential teachers. Unlike prior research, we directly assess teacher quality with value-added measures of impacts on student test scores, using administrative data on 33,000 teachers in Florida public schools. Consistent with a Roy model of occupational choice, teachers entering the profession during recessions are significantly more effective in raising student test scores. Results are supported by placebo tests and not driven by differential attrition.
Keywords: teacher quality; business cycle; value-added measures; education policy
JEL Codes: E32; H75; I20; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| business cycle conditions at career start (E32) | outside job opportunities available to potential teachers (J45) |
| outside job opportunities available to potential teachers (J45) | teacher quality (A21) |
| teacher quality (A21) | student test scores (I21) |
| teachers who entered during recessions (J45) | effectiveness in raising student test scores (A21) |
| effectiveness in raising student test scores (A21) | student test scores (I21) |
| higher-skilled individuals opt for teaching during economic downturns (J24) | teacher quality (A21) |
| teaching experience and demographic characteristics (A29) | teacher effectiveness (A21) |