Working Paper: NBER ID: w1882
Authors: William I. Dickens; Jonathan S. Leonard
Abstract: This paper presents a decomposition of the decline in union density into structural and within sector components using CPS data for private sector workers. We find that 58 to 68 percent of the decline in private sector unionization between 1973 and 1981 can be accounted for by structural changes in the economy, particularly in the occupational, educational and gender distribution of the workforce. This is a large impact, but we find that while structural change is important, its importance was not appreciably greate during the 1970s than during previous decades. At the same time, we find that the decline of private sector unionization within sectors has been pervasive, accounting for 32 to 42 percent of union decline. As part of this analysis we find that the decline in union density has been greater in those sectors of the economy where employment decline has been greater. This fact can help reconcile previous divergent findings on the importance of structural change.
Keywords: union density; structural changes; labor economics; union membership
JEL Codes: J51; J52
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| structural changes in the economy (L16) | decline in union density (J50) |
| shift from blue-collar to white-collar jobs (J62) | decline in union density (J50) |
| changes in education (I24) | decline in union density (J50) |
| changes in industry (L16) | decline in union density (J50) |
| changes in gender distribution (J21) | decline in union density (J50) |
| sectoral employment changes (J21) | decline in union density (J50) |