Working Paper: NBER ID: w17120
Authors: John P. Papay; Richard J. Murnane; John B. Willett
Abstract: Students receive abundant information about their educational performance, but how this information affects future educational-investment decisions is not well understood. Increasingly common sources of information are state-mandated standardized tests. On these tests, students receive a score and a label that summarizes their performance. Using a regression-discontinuity design, we find persistent effects of earning a more positive label on the college-going decisions of urban, low-income students. Consistent with a Bayesian-updating model, these effects are concentrated among students with weaker priors, specifically those who report before taking the test that they do not plan to attend a four-year college.
Keywords: performance labels; college enrollment; urban low-income students; regression discontinuity design; educational outcomes
JEL Codes: I20; I21; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| performance labels (Y90) | college enrollment decisions (I23) |
| labeled 'advanced' (Y50) | college enrollment decisions (I23) |
| performance labels (Y90) | perceptions of academic abilities (I24) |
| weaker prior beliefs about capabilities (D83) | college enrollment decisions (I23) |