Working Paper: NBER ID: w17112
Authors: John P. Papay; John B. Willett; Richard J. Murnane
Abstract: We ask whether failing one or more of the state-mandated high-school exit examinations affects whether students graduate from high school. Using a new multi-dimensional regression-discontinuity approach, we examine simultaneously scores on mathematics and English language arts tests. Barely passing both examinations, as opposed to failing them, increases the probability that students graduate by 7.6 percentage points. The effects are greater for students scoring near each cutoff than for students further away from them. We explain how the multi-dimensional regression-discontinuity approach provides insights over conventional methods for making causal inferences when multiple variables assign individuals to a range of treatments.
Keywords: high school exit examinations; graduation rates; regression discontinuity
JEL Codes: C10; C14; I20; I21; I28; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| barely passing both examinations (Y40) | probability of graduating (A23) |
| passing ELA examination (A21) | probability of graduating for students who failed mathematics test (C12) |
| passing ELA examination (A21) | probability of graduating for students who passed mathematics test (C12) |
| passing ELA examination (A21) | passing mathematics examination (C12) |