Working Paper: NBER ID: w14607
Authors: Thomas J. Kane; Douglas O. Staiger
Abstract: We used a random-assignment experiment in Los Angeles Unified School District to evaluate various non-experimental methods for estimating teacher effects on student test scores. Having estimated teacher effects during a pre-experimental period, we used these estimates to predict student achievement following random assignment of teachers to classrooms. While all of the teacher effect estimates we considered were significant predictors of student achievement under random assignment, those that controlled for prior student test scores yielded unbiased predictions and those that further controlled for mean classroom characteristics yielded the best prediction accuracy. In both the experimental and non-experimental data, we found that teacher effects faded out by roughly 50 percent per year in the two years following teacher assignment.
Keywords: Teacher Effects; Student Achievement; Random Assignment; Value Added
JEL Codes: I21
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| nonexperimental estimates of teacher effects controlling for prior student test scores and mean classroom characteristics (C90) | student achievement (I24) |
| assigned teachers (J45) | fadeout effect on student achievement (I21) |
| teacher effects estimated without controlling for student characteristics (C29) | overstate differences in teacher effectiveness (D29) |
| assigned teachers (J45) | student achievement (I24) |