Working Paper: NBER ID: w1275
Authors: William T. Dickens; Jonathan S. Leonard
Abstract: Since the early 50s, the percent of the workforce organized by unions has declined considerably. In the most recent decade that rate of decline has accelerated sharply. In an attempt to discover what factors can account for the overall decline and the further deterioration during the 70s, we decompose the sources of growth and decline to determine the relative importance of changes in organizing activity, success in certification elections, decertifications, and net growth due to economic causes. We find that all factors except decertifications account for a substantial part of the change. In addition, interactions between the factors are very important. A significant finding is that while organizing activity and success rates have been declining over time, the net growth (or loss) of membership due to economic causes has remained stable controlling for the aggregate level of economic activity. We argue that this finding is inconsistent with the prevailing view that the decline in the percent of the workforce organized is primarily due to the decline of the heavily unionized core industries.
Keywords: Union Membership; Labor Relations; Economic Causes
JEL Codes: J51; J53
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Decline in organizing activity (L39) | Decline in the percent of the workforce organized (J50) |
| Decrease in success rates in NLRB elections (J58) | Decline in the percent of the workforce organized (J50) |
| Net economic causes (F69) | Decline in the percent of the workforce organized (J50) |
| Decline in organizing activity + Decrease in success rates in NLRB elections (J58) | Decline in the percent of the workforce organized (J50) |
| Decline in organizing activity + Decrease in success rates in NLRB elections + Net economic causes (J59) | Decline in the percent of the workforce organized (J50) |