Years of Service and Probability of Promotion

Working Paper: NBER ID: w1191

Authors: Katharine G. Abraham; James L. Medoff

Abstract: This study provides evidence which we believe challenges some conventional assumptions about the promotion process. Based on survey information collected from a large random sample of U.S. private sector firms, we reach two main conclusions. First,seniority independent of productivity appears to play a significant role even in nonunion promotion decisions. Second, the differences between union and nonunion promotion processes, at least with regard to the weight assigned to seniority per se, appear to be important but less dramatic than is popularly supposed.

Keywords: promotion process; seniority; union vs nonunion; labor studies

JEL Codes: J31; J41


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
seniority (M52)promotion decisions (M51)
seniority (M52)promotion outcomes (M51)
nonunion workplaces (J50)seniority influences promotion outcomes (M51)
union workplaces (J51)seniority influences promotion outcomes (M51)
promotion processes (union vs nonunion) (J50)preference for seniority (M51)

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