Working Paper: NBER ID: w9944
Authors: Douglas A. Irwin; Joseph H. Davis
Abstract: Between 1807 and 1815, U.S. imports of manufactured goods were severely cut by Jefferson's trade embargo, subsequent non-importation measures, and the War of 1812. These disruptions are commonly believed to have spurred early U.S. industrialization by promoting the growth of nascent domestic manufacturers. This paper uses a newly available series on U.S. industrial production to investigate how this protection from foreign competition affected domestic manufacturing. On balance, the trade disruptions did not decisively accelerate U.S. industrialization as trend growth in industrial production was little changed over this period. However, the disruptions may have played a limited role in shifting resources from trade-dependent industries (such as shipbuilding) to domestic infant industries (such as cotton textiles).
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F1; N7
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| trade disruptions (F69) | shift in resources to domestic infant industries (O25) |
| trade disruptions (F69) | adverse effect on trade-dependent industries (F14) |
| trade disruptions (F69) | temporary boost in infant industries (O25) |
| tariff of 1816 and international demand (N62) | reallocation of resources between industries (L16) |
| trade disruptions (F69) | no lasting acceleration in overall manufacturing growth (O49) |