Working Paper: NBER ID: w9815
Authors: Douglas A. Irwin
Abstract: U.S. safeguard actions have run into problems with the WTO's Panel and Appellate Body reviews for failing to ensure that injury caused by non-import factors is not attributed to imports. This paper reviews the subtle legal and economic differences between U.S. trade law (Section 201) and the WTO's Agreement on Safeguards on the non-attribution issue. The paper then resurrects the Kelly (1988) method of attributing injury to various factors as a potential method by which the ITC can ensure that future decisions conform with the Safeguards Agreement. The method is shown to yield results that are consistent with recent ITC safeguard decisions.
Keywords: WTO; Trade Law; Safeguards; Injury Attribution
JEL Codes: F1; K2
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increased imports (F10) | Serious injury to domestic industries (L49) |
| ITC's failure to separate non-import-related injury (L49) | Inconsistencies with WTO standards (F13) |
| Utilizing the Kelly method (C60) | More accurate assessments of injury attribution (J17) |
| More accurate assessments of injury attribution (J17) | Improved ITC decision-making process (O33) |