Working Paper: NBER ID: w9798
Authors: Jeff Dominitz; Charles F. Manski; Jordan Heinz
Abstract: Americans may be uncertain of their future Social Security benefits for several reasons, including uncertainty about their future labor earnings, the formula now determining Social Security benefits, and the future structure of the Social Security system. To learn how Americans perceive their benefits, we have elicited Social Security expectations from respondents to the Survey of Economic Expectations. We have also performed a more intensive face-to-face survey on a small sample of respondents. We find clear and striking evidence of substantial uncertainty and heterogeneity of beliefs about the long-term existence of the Social Security system and about the level of benefits provided should the system survive.
Keywords: Social Security; Expectations; Retirement Savings
JEL Codes: H55; D84; E2
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| social security expectations (H55) | retirement savings decisions (J26) |
| social security lockbox (H55) | social security expectations (H55) |
| age (J14) | social security expectations (H55) |