Working Paper: NBER ID: w9744
Authors: Nicholas G. Rupp; George M. Holmes; Jeff Desimone
Abstract: Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, repeated airport closures due to potential security breaches have imposed substantial costs on travelers, airlines, and government agencies in terms of flight delays and cancellations. Using data from the year following September 11th, this study examines how airlines recover flight schedules upon reopening of airports that have been closed for security reasons. As such, this is the first study to examine service quality during irregular operations. Our results indicate that while outcomes of flights scheduled during airport closures are difficult to explain, a variety of factors, including potential revenue per flight and logistical variables such as flight distance, seating capacity and shutdown severity, significantly predict outcomes of flights scheduled after airports reopen. Given the likelihood of continued security-related airport closings, understanding the factors that determine schedule recovery is potentially important.
Keywords: airline schedules; airport closures; security breaches; flight recovery
JEL Codes: L13; L93
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| potential revenue per flight (L93) | flights depart on time (L93) |
| potential revenue per flight (L93) | flights are delayed (L93) |
| flight distance (L93) | outcomes of flights (L93) |
| seating capacity (D24) | outcomes of flights (L93) |
| shutdown severity (J65) | outcomes of flights (L93) |
| airport closures (L93) | cancellations (Y90) |