Working Paper: NBER ID: w9648
Authors: Rasmus Fatum; Michael M. Hutchison
Abstract: Japanese official intervention in the foreign exchange market is of by far the largest magnitude in the world, despite little or no evidence that it is effective in moving exchange rates. This paper investigates the effectiveness of intervention using recently published Japanese official daily data and an event study methodology. Focusing on daily Japanese and US official intervention operations, we identify separate intervention episodes' and analyze the subsequent effect on the exchange rate. Using the non-parametric sign test and matched-sample test, we find strong evidence that sterilized intervention systemically affects the exchange rate in the short-run (less than one month). This result holds even when intervention is not associated with (simultaneous) interest rate changes, whether or not intervention is secret' (in the sense of no official reports or rumors of intervention reported over the newswires), and against other robustness checks. Large-scale (amounts over $1 billion) intervention, coordinated with the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve working in unison, give the highest success rate
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F31; F33; F42; G15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Sterilized intervention (C26) | Exchange rate (F31) |
| Large-scale interventions exceeding 1 billion USD (F35) | Exchange rate (F31) |
| Sterilized intervention (without simultaneous interest rate changes) (E43) | Exchange rate (F31) |
| Intervention events (clusters of related days of intervention) (C38) | Exchange rate movements (F31) |