Working Paper: NBER ID: w9161
Authors: jeffrey g williamson
Abstract: The world has seen two globalization booms over the past two centuries, and one bust. The first global century ended with World War I and the second started at the end of World War II, while the years in between were ones of anti-global backlash. This lecture reports what we know about the winners and losers during the two global centuries, including aspects almost always ignored in modern debate how prices of consumption goods on the expenditure side are affected, and how the economic position of the poor is influenced. It also reports two responses of the winners to the losers' complaints. Some concessions to the losers took the form of anti-global policy manifested by immigration restriction in the high-wage countries and trade restriction pretty much everywhere. Some concessions to the losers were also manifested by a race towards the top' whereby legislation strengthened losers' safety nets and increased their sense of political participation. The lecture concludes with four lessons of history and an agenda for international economists, including more attention to the impact of globalization on commodity price structure, the causes of protection, the impact of world migration on poverty eradication, and the role of political participation in the whole process.
Keywords: globalization; inequality; economic policy; trade; migration
JEL Codes: F0; N0; O5; D3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| globalization (F60) | income inequality (between nations) (D31) |
| globalization (F60) | income inequality (within nations) (D31) |
| economic policies (E69) | income inequality (within nations) (D31) |
| historical events (e.g., wars, trade barriers) (N43) | economic policies (E69) |
| income inequality (within nations) (D31) | policy responses (D78) |
| backlash against globalization (F69) | policy changes (restricting trade and immigration) (F13) |
| economic policies (E69) | economic positions of poor populations (I32) |
| integration of global commodity markets (F02) | economic landscape (P17) |
| decline of transport costs (R41) | economic landscape (P17) |
| rising protectionism (F52) | economic landscape (P17) |