Optimal Long-Run Fiscal Policy: Constraints, Preferences, and the Resolution of Uncertainty

Working Paper: NBER ID: w9132

Authors: Alan J. Auerbach; Kevin Hassett

Abstract: We construct a computational dynamic stochastic overlapping generations general equilibrium model with uncertain lifetimes and explore the impact of policy stickiness (specifically, a major reform will preclude future reforms for a generation) on optimal long-run fiscal policy. Under such circumstances, entitlement reforms exhaust a valuable option to move in the future. We explore the conditions under which the gain to waiting is large enough to induce optimizing policymakers to delay reforming a suboptimal system. We also allow for the uncertainty to have ARCH characteristics and explore the impact of time-varying uncertainty on the optimality of delayed policy action.

Keywords: No keywords provided

JEL Codes: E62; H62


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
policy stickiness (C54)long-run viability of fiscal policy (E62)
future uncertainty (D84)current policy actions (E63)
positive shocks to life span (J17)current capital accumulation (E22)

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