Working Paper: NBER ID: w9024
Authors: David Romer
Abstract: This paper uses play-by-play accounts of virtually all regular season National Football League games for 1998-2000 to analyze teams' choices on fourth down between trying for a first down and kicking. Dynamic programming is used to estimate the values of possessing the ball at different points on the field. These estimates are combined with data on the results of kicks and conventional plays to estimate the average payoffs to kicking and going for it under different circumstances. Examination of teams' actual decisions shows systematic, overwhelmingly statistically significant, and quantitatively large departures from the decisions the dynamic-programming analysis implies are preferable.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: L10; D21; L83
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| NFL teams' decisions regarding fourth down strategies (C73) | deviation from optimal decisions predicted by dynamic programming (C61) |
| possessing the ball at certain points on the field (Z29) | higher expected payoffs than kicking (C79) |
| teams' decisions to kick (D79) | not attempting to gain a first down (Y40) |