Working Paper: NBER ID: w8946
Authors: Darius Lakdawalla; Tomas Philipson
Abstract: This paper provides a theoretical and empirical examination of the long-run growth in weight over time. We argue that technological change has induced weight growth by making home- and market-production more sedentary and by lowering food prices through agricultural innovation. We analyze how such technological change leads to unexpected relationships among income, food prices, and weight. Using individual-level data from 1976 to 1994, we then find that such technology-based reductions in food prices and job-related exercise have had significant impacts on weight across time and populations. In particular, we find that about forty percent of the recent growth in weight seems to be due to agricultural innovation that has lowered food prices, while sixty percent may be due to demand factors such as declining physical activity from technological changes in home and market production.
Keywords: Obesity; Technological Change; Agricultural Innovation; Food Prices; Income
JEL Codes: I1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Technological change (O33) | Increase in average weight (F62) |
| Agricultural innovations (Q16) | Lower food prices (Q11) |
| Lower food prices (Q11) | Increase in average weight (F62) |
| Technological change (O33) | Decreased physical activity (I12) |
| Decreased physical activity (I12) | Increase in average weight (F62) |
| Job strenuousness (J28) | BMI increase (I12) |
| Income (D31) | Weight outcomes (I14) |