Working Paper: NBER ID: w8938
Authors: William D. Nordhaus
Abstract: This paper examines the state of the United States economy as it emerges from the 2001 recession. A comparison of several central economic variables indicates that the 2001 recession was the mildest recession in the postwar period. In light of highly differentiated characteristics of recessions, the paper suggests that we differentiate among downturns by a five-category 'recession severity scale,' analogous to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. According to this approach, the 2001 recession fits in the least severe box, a 'category I recession,' along with the 1963 and 1967 non-recessions. The paper next examines the behavior of profits in recent years and shows that financial finagling has infected the aggregate profits numbers. Finally, the study constructs a measure of the forward-looking return on equities and concludes that the prospective real yield on equities in early 2002 is at its low point of the last half-century.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: E3; E5
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 2001 recession (F44) | mildest in postwar period (N44) |
| financial 'finagling' (G41) | distorted aggregate profits (E25) |
| 2001 recession (F44) | expected real yield on equities at lowest point (G12) |