Working Paper: NBER ID: w8860
Authors: Paul W. Rhode
Abstract: This paper presents Robert Gallman's classic, but heretofore unpublished annual series for US national product over the 1834-59 and 1869-1909 periods. The 'Volume 30' series, reported as decadal averages, underlie much of what we know about American income growth and capital formation before 1909. This paper briefly documents Gallman's construction and use of the annual series, offers corrections for minor errors found in the previously circulated versions, compares the series with alternative national product estimates, and explores promising avenues for further research. Most importantly, this paper lays out why Gallman considered his annual 'Volume 30' series unsuitable for business-cycle analysis.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: N11; O47; E20
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Gallman's methodological choices (C90) | reliability of the output series (C51) |
| adjustments made to Gallman's original estimates (C13) | accuracy of the national product estimates (E01) |
| Gallman's annual output series (E23) | insights into long-run economic performance (P17) |
| Gallman's annual output series (E23) | not suitable for business cycle analysis (E32) |