Working Paper: NBER ID: w8793
Authors: Randolph B. Cohen; Paul A. Gompers; Tuomo Vuolteenaho
Abstract: A large body of literature suggests that firm-level stock prices 'underreact' to news about future cash flows, i.e., shocks to a firm's expected cash flows are positively correlated with shocks to expected returns on its stock. We estimate a vector autoregession to examine the joint behavior of returns, cash-flow news, and trading between individuals and institutions. Our main finding is that institutions buy shares from individuals in response to good cash-flow news, thus exploiting the underreaction phenomenon. Institutions are not simply following price momentum strategies: When price goes up in the absence of positive cash-flow news, institutions sell shares to individuals. Although institutions are trading in the 'right' direction, institutions as a group outperform individuals by only 1.44 percent per annum before transaction and other costs, because they are extremely conservative in deviating from the value-weight market index.
Keywords: cashflow news; institutional trading; stock prices; market efficiency
JEL Codes: G120; G140
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Cashflow news (G19) | Institutions buy shares from individuals (G23) |
| Stock price increase (G19) | Institutions sell shares to individuals (G23) |
| Cashflow news (G19) | Institutional ownership response (G32) |
| Cashflow news (G19) | Price efficiency implications (D61) |