Working Paper: NBER ID: w8738
Authors: Carmen M. Reinhart
Abstract: Sovereign credit ratings play an important role in determining the terms and the extent to which countries have access to international capital markets. In principle, there is no reason why changes in sovereign credit ratings should be expected to systematically predict a currency crisis. In practice, however, in developing countries there is a strong link between currency crises and default. About 85 percent of all the defaults in the sample are linked with currency crises. The results presented here suggest that sovereign credit ratings systematically fail to anticipate currency crises--but do considerably better predicting defaults. Downgrades usually follow the currency crisis--possibly highlighting how currency instability increases default risk.
Keywords: sovereign credit ratings; currency crises; default risk
JEL Codes: F30; F31; F34
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| currency crises (F31) | default risk (G33) |
| currency crises (F31) | downgrades in credit ratings (G21) |
| credit ratings (G24) | currency crises (F31) |
| downgrades in credit ratings (G21) | default risk (G33) |