Working Paper: NBER ID: w8720
Authors: Stephen Coate; Michael Conlin
Abstract: This paper uses data from Texas liquor referenda to explore a new approach to understanding voter turnout, inspired by the theoretical work of Harsanyi (1980) and Feddersen and Sandroni (2001). It presents a model based on this approach and structurally estimates it using the referendum data. It then compares the performance of the model with two alternative models of turnout. The results are encouraging: the structural estimation yields sensible parameter estimates and the model performs better than the two alternatives considered.
Keywords: voter turnout; liquor referenda; Texas; structural estimation
JEL Codes: D72
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| expected turnout of the opposition (D72) | expected voting costs for supporters (K16) |
| expected voting costs for supporters (K16) | turnout rates of supporters (D79) |
| expected turnout of the opposition (D72) | turnout rates of supporters (D79) |