Working Paper: NBER ID: w8718
Authors: Jeff Dominitz; Charles F. Manski; Jordan Heinz
Abstract: Retirement savings decisions should depend on expectations of Social Security retirement income. Persons may be uncertain of their future Social Security benefits for several reasons, including uncertainty about their future labor earnings, the formula now determining social security benefits, and the future structure of the Social Security system. To learn how Americans perceive their benefits, we have elicited Social Security expectations from respondents to the Survey of Economic Expectations. We have also performed a more intensive face-to-face survey on a small sample of respondents. This paper presents the empirical findings. It also illustrates how data on expectations may help predict how Social Security policy affects retirement savings.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: H55; D84; E2
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Expectations of social security retirement income (H55) | Retirement savings decisions (D14) |
| Uncertainty about future labor earnings (J49) | Expectations of social security retirement income (H55) |
| Social security benefit formula (H55) | Expectations of social security retirement income (H55) |
| Structural changes in the social security system (H55) | Expectations of social security retirement income (H55) |