Working Paper: NBER ID: w8716
Authors: Barry Eichengreen; Michael D. Bordo
Abstract: We consider the operation of international capital markets in two periods of globalization, before 1914 and after 1971, with a focus on the crisis problem. We explore the idea that the incidence of crises in these two periods reflects how capital flows were embedded in the larger economic system. Other authors have made similar connections, suggesting that the international monetary framework was responsible for the relatively short-lived and mild nature of pre-World War I financial crises. However, we show that currency crises in fact were of longer duration before 1914. Only for banking and twin crises is there evidence that recovery was faster then than now. This leads us to a somewhat different view of the role of the monetary regime in the propagation of financial crises. A key difference between then and now, we suggest, is that prior to 1914 banking crises were less prone to undermine confidence in the currency, and to thereby compound financial problems, in the countries that were at the core of the international monetary system.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F33; N20
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| monetary regime (E42) | nature of financial crises (G01) |
| monetary regime (E42) | crisis recovery (H12) |
| banking crises before 1914 (N13) | loss of confidence in currency (F31) |
| loss of confidence in currency (F31) | propagation of financial problems (F65) |
| banking crises (G01) | recovery speed (C22) |
| currency crises before 1914 (N13) | duration of crises (H12) |