Working Paper: NBER ID: w8541
Authors: Robert Kaestner; Neeraj Kaushal
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the effect of federal welfare reform on the employment, hours of work and marriage rates of three groups of low-educated women: foreign-born citizens, foreign-born non-citizens and native-born citizens. Among non-citizens, we investigate whether the behavioral response to welfare reform differed by recency of immigration. Finally, because some states created programs to insure that all legal immigrants remained eligible for benefits under the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program and others did not, we compare the response of foreign-born non-citizens between these states to investigate whether the immigrant provisions of federal welfare reform legislation had a 'chilling' effect. The results suggest that welfare reform induced native-born citizens and foreign- born non-citizens to increase their employment and attachment to the labor market. TANF appears to have had a larger effect on the least educated native-born women and among foreign-born non-citizens, a larger effect on more recent arrivals. The 'chilling' hypothesis that has received so much attention in the popular press is not supported by our results. Finally, our estimates indicate that TANF had no effect on native- and foreign-born citizens' marriage decisions. TANF was associated with a decrease in the marriage rates of foreign-born non-citizens.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: J2
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Welfare reform (I38) | Employment increase for native-born citizens (J69) |
| Welfare reform (I38) | Employment increase for foreign-born non-citizens (J69) |
| Welfare reform (I38) | Decrease in marriage rates for foreign-born non-citizens (J12) |
| Welfare reform (I38) | No significant effect on marriage decisions for native citizens (J12) |
| Welfare reform (I38) | No significant effect on marriage decisions for foreign-born citizens (J12) |