Working Paper: NBER ID: w8217
Authors: Assaf Razin; Jacob Frenkel; Elhanan Helpman; Efraim Sadka
Abstract: The theory of international macroeconomics shows that domestic tax policy in a global economy affects foreign economic conditions via complex, dynamic interactions through relative prices, tax revenues, and wealth distribution. This paper proposes a tractable quantitative framework for assessing tax policies that is consistent with this theory. The significance of the international transmission channels of tax policy is evaluated in the context of a 'workhorse' two-country dynamic general equilibrium model. The model is used to assess the potential effects of the European harmonization of capital income taxes. The results show that this policy, if enacted along the lines followed in harmonizing value-added taxes, yields large capital outflows and a significant erosion of tax revenue for Continental Europe while the opposite effects benefit the United Kingdom. Welfare in the United Kingdom rises as result, while Continental Europe may incur a substantial welfare cost.
Keywords: international taxation; capital income tax; macroeconomic dynamics; social welfare
JEL Codes: H21; H25; F21
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Capital income tax rate in the UK (E25) | Social welfare (I38) |
| Capital income tax rate in the UK (E25) | Capital stock (E22) |
| Capital income tax rate in the UK (E25) | Tax revenue (H29) |
| Combined effects of three transmission channels (C32) | Welfare loss in continental Europe (D69) |
| Tax policy changes in the UK (H26) | Welfare loss in continental Europe (D69) |
| Harmonized tax rates (H25) | Welfare outcomes in continental Europe (D69) |
| Harmonized tax rates (H25) | Welfare outcomes in the UK (I38) |
| Capital income tax rate in the UK (E25) | Capital outflows (F32) |
| Capital income tax rate in the UK (E25) | Tax revenue erosion (H26) |