Working Paper: NBER ID: w8166
Authors: Boyan Jovanovic; Peter L. Rousseau
Abstract: We study 114 years of U.S. stock market data and find That there are large cohort effects in stock prices, effects that we label 'organization capital,' That cohort effects grew at a rate of 1.75% per year, That the debt-equity ratio of all vintages declined, That three big technological waves took place: electricity (1895-1930), a 'World War II' wave (1945-1970), and information technology (1971-), and That organization capital tends to grow fastest during the second half of a technological wave.
Keywords: vintage capital; stock market; technological change
JEL Codes: N20; G12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Technology (L63) | Stock Market Value (G10) |
| Mergers and Spinoffs (G34) | Perceived Value (D46) |
| Market Power (L11) | Stock Market Value (G10) |
| Firms from the 1920s (L20) | Higher Stock Market Value (G19) |