Working Paper: NBER ID: w7440
Authors: Michael D. Hurd; Daniel McFadden; Angela Merrill
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to find the quantitative importance of some predictors of mortality among the population aged 70 or over. The predictors are socio-economic indicators (income, wealth and education), thirteen health indicators including a history of heart attack or cancer, and subjective probabilities of survival. The estimation is based on mortality between waves 1 and 2 of the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest-Old study. We find that the relationship between socio-economic indicators and mortality declines with age 13 health indicators are strong predictors of mortality and that the subjective survival probabilities predict mortality even after controlling for socio-economic indicators and the health conditions.
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JEL Codes: No JEL codes provided
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| socioeconomic status (SES) (I24) | mortality (I12) |
| lower SES (I24) | higher mortality rates (I12) |
| health indicators (I15) | mortality (I12) |
| subjective survival probabilities (C41) | mortality (I12) |
| subjective survival probabilities (C41) | actual mortality rates (J17) |
| new health information (I10) | subjective survival probabilities (C41) |