Working Paper: NBER ID: w7405
Authors: H. Naci Mocan; Daniel I. Rees
Abstract: This is the first paper to test the economic model of crime for juveniles using micro data. It uses a nationally representative sample of 16,478 high school children surveyed in 1995. The sample includes not only detailed information on offenses, but also data on personal, family and neighborhood characteristics as well as deterrence measures. We analyze the determinants of selling drugs, committing assault, robbery, burglary and theft, separately for males and females. We find that an increase in violent crime arrests reduces the probability of selling drugs and assaulting someone for males, and reduces the probability of selling drugs and stealing for females. An increase in local unemployment increases the propensity to commit crimes, as does local poverty. Similarly, family poverty increases the probability to commit robbery, burglary and theft for males, and assault and burglary for females. Local characteristics are more important for females than males. The results also indicate that family supervision has an impact on delinquent behavior. These results show that juveniles do respond to incentives and sanctions as predicted by economic theory. Employment opportunities, increased family income and more strict deterrence are effective tools to reduce juvenile crime.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increase in violent crime arrests (K42) | Decrease in likelihood of selling drugs for males (J79) |
| Increase in violent crime arrests (K42) | Decrease in likelihood of committing assaults for males (J12) |
| Increase in violent crime arrests (K42) | Decrease in likelihood of selling drugs for females (J16) |
| Increase in violent crime arrests (K42) | Decrease in likelihood of stealing for females (J16) |
| Local unemployment (J64) | Increase in crime propensity (K42) |
| Family poverty (I32) | Increase in likelihood of robbery for males (J79) |
| Family poverty (I32) | Increase in likelihood of burglary for males (J12) |
| Family poverty (I32) | Increase in likelihood of theft for males (K42) |
| Family poverty (I32) | Increase in likelihood of assault for females (J16) |
| Family poverty (I32) | Increase in likelihood of burglary for females (J12) |
| Increased family supervision (J12) | Decrease in delinquent behavior (K40) |