Working Paper: NBER ID: w7315
Authors: Gordon H. Hanson; Antonio Spilimbergo
Abstract: In this paper, we examine the correlation between sectoral shocks and border enforcement in the United States. Enforcement of national borders is the main policy instrument the U.S. government uses to combat illegal immigration. The motivation for the exercise is to see whether border enforcement falls following positive shocks to sectors that are intensive in the use of undocumented labor, as would be consistent with political economy models of how enforcement policy against illegal immigration is determined. The main finding is that border enforcement is negatively correlated with lagged relative price changes in the apparel, fruits and vegetables, and slaughtered livestock industries and with housing starts in the western United States. This suggests that authorities relax border enforcement when the demand for undocumented workers is high.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F2
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| sectoral shocks (F41) | border enforcement (F55) |
| positive shocks to sectors (apparel, fruits, vegetables, slaughtered livestock) (F69) | demand for undocumented labor (J69) |
| demand for undocumented labor (J69) | border enforcement (F55) |
| increased demand in apparel industry (L67) | lobbying for relaxed enforcement (K23) |
| lobbying for relaxed enforcement (K23) | lower equilibrium level of border enforcement (F55) |
| labor market conditions in U.S. and Mexico (F66) | illegal immigration (K37) |