Working Paper: NBER ID: w6817
Authors: Ernst R. Berndt; David M. Cutler; Richard G. Frank; Zvi Griliches; Joseph P. Newhouse; Jack E. Triplett
Abstract: We review in considerable detail the conceptual and measurement issues that underlie construction of medical care price indexes in the U.S., particularly the medical care consumer price indexes (MCPIs) and medical-related producer price indexes (MPPIs). We outline salient features of the medical care marketplace, including the impacts of insurance, moral hazard, principal-agent relationships, technological progress and organizational changes. Since observed data are unlikely to correspond with efficient outcomes, we discuss implications of the failure of transactions data in this market to reveal reliable marginal valuations, and the consequent need to augment traditional transactions data with information based on cost-effectiveness and outcomes studies. We describe procedures currently used by the BLS in constructing MCPIs and MPPIs, including recent revisions, and then consider alternative notions of medical care output pricing that involve the price or cost of an episode of treatment, rather than prices of fixed bundles of inputs. We outline features of a proposed new experimental price index -- a medical care expenditure price index -- that is more suitable for evaluation and analyses of medical care cost changes, than are the current MCPIs and MPPIs. We conclude by suggesting future research and measurement issues that are most likely to be fruitful.
Keywords: Medical Price Indexes; Healthcare Productivity; Price Measurement
JEL Codes: I11; I13; C43
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Accurate output measurement (Y10) | Economic assessment (O22) |
| Moral hazard in health insurance (G52) | Overconsumption of medical care (H51) |
| Misalignment of incentives between patients and providers (I11) | Inefficiencies in healthcare delivery (I11) |
| Technological advancements (O33) | Ability to construct accurate price indexes (C43) |
| Traditional methods of price measurement fail to account for technological changes (O33) | Inaccuracies in price indexes (E31) |