Working Paper: NBER ID: w5768
Authors: John Whalley
Abstract: This paper discusses the likely evolution of the trade and environment issue in the World Trade Organization after the upcoming ministerial meeting in Singapore this December. It makes a number of points. Progress within the GATT/WTO on this issue looks likely to be slow and painfully incremental rather than bold as environmental groups would wish to see. The paper also argues that despite (and beyond) Singapore, one has to go further than the GATT/WTO to see the potential evolution of the trade and environment issue. Developments seem likely to be driven in the next few years as much by factors outside the GATT/WTO as well as within it, as new global environmental arrangements, some with potentially large trade implications (such as carbon emission limitation agreements), emerge.
Keywords: trade; environment; WTO; GATT; globalization
JEL Codes: F18; Q56
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| increased trade (F19) | increased consumption and production (E20) |
| increased consumption and production (E20) | lower environmental quality (Q53) |
| higher income countries (O57) | stronger environmental protections (Q58) |
| higher income countries (O57) | specialize in cleaner goods (L68) |
| trade policy (F13) | environmental objectives (Q56) |
| trade restrictions based on environmental grounds (F18) | justified trade policy (F13) |
| open trading system (F13) | new protectionist measures motivated by environmental concerns (F18) |
| trade-environment issue unresolved (F18) | potential for conflict between developed and developing countries (O10) |