Are Medical Prices Declining?

Working Paper: NBER ID: w5750

Authors: David M. Cutler; Mark McClellan; Joseph P. Newhouse; Dahlia Remler

Abstract: We address long-standing problems in measuring health care prices by estimating two medical care price indices. The first, a Service Price Index, prices specific medical services, as does the current CPI. The second, a Cost of Living Index, measures the net valuation of treating a health problem. We apply these indices to heart attack treatment between 1983 and 1994. Because of technological change and increasing price discounts, the current CPI overstates a chain-weighted price index by three percentage points annually. For plausible values of an additional life-year, the real Cost of Living Index fell about 1 percent annually.

Keywords: Medical Prices; Health Care Economics; Price Indices; Heart Attack Treatment

JEL Codes: I11; I18


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for medical care (I11)price of other goods (E39)
CPI overstates true price increase (E31)changes in service quality and complexity of medical pricing systems (I11)
real cost of living index for treating heart attacks (I11)perceived inflation in medical prices (E31)
technological change and price discounts (O33)cost of living index (C82)
current price indices (C43)real costs associated with heart attack treatment (I11)

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