Working Paper: NBER ID: w5674
Authors: Michael Kremer; Charles Morcom
Abstract: Existing models of open-access resources are applicable to non-storable resources, such as fish. Many open-access resources, however, are used to produce storable goods. Elephants, rhinos, and tigers are three prominent examples. Anticipated future scarcity of these resources will increase current prices, and current poaching. This implies that, for given initial conditions, there may be rational expectations equilibria leading both to extinction and to survival. Governments may be able to eliminate extinction equilibria by promising to implement tough anti-poaching measures if the population falls below a threshold. Alternatively, they, or private agents, may be able to eliminate extinction equilibria by accumulating a sufficient stockpile of the storable good.
Keywords: open-access resources; overharvesting; storable goods; ivory trade; antipoaching measures
JEL Codes: Q20; Q21; Q57
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| anticipated future scarcity (Q31) | higher current prices (L97) |
| higher current prices (L97) | increased poaching (Q57) |
| anticipated future scarcity (Q31) | increased poaching (Q57) |
| government measures (H59) | elimination of extinction equilibria (C62) |