Working Paper: NBER ID: w5621
Authors: John T. Addison; Douglas A. Fox; Christopher J. Ruhm
Abstract: We study the relationship between international trade, technology, and the probability and consequences of job displacement, using data on displaced workers as well as those at risk of job dislocation for 1984-86 and 1989-91. Workers employed in industries with elevated import shares and high levels of investment in computers appear to have increased rates of job loss, with the results for export penetration varying on the time period examined. These risks do not, however, translate into unfavorable postdisplacement labor market outcomes. Indeed, there is some evidence that individuals displaced from export-oriented sectors have fewer adjustment problems than the generality of dislocated workers, while those terminated from sectors investing heavily in computer technologies are more likely to retain health insurance coverage. That being said, our findings are frequently sensitive to the choice of specifications and time periods.
Keywords: Job Displacement; International Trade; Technological Change; Labor Market Outcomes
JEL Codes: J63; F16; O33
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| High import shares (F10) | Job displacement (J63) |
| Technological change (O33) | Job displacement (J63) |
| Export-oriented sectors (F14) | Adjustment problems (F32) |
| Computer technologies (L63) | Health insurance coverage post-displacement (G52) |