Working Paper: NBER ID: w4853
Authors: Rebecca M. Blank; Christine C. George; Rebecca A. London
Abstract: This paper uses data on abortion rates from 1974-88, to estimate two-stage least squares models with fixed state and year effects. The results indicate that implementing restrictions on Medicaid funding for abortion results in lower aggregate abortion rates in-state and higher abortion rates among nearby states, suggesting one of the main effects of these policies is to induce cross-state migration for abortion services. The effect of these restrictions on actual abortions among state residents is much smaller; a maximal estimate suggests that 22 percent of the abortions among low-income women that are publicly funded do not take place after funding is eliminated. We also have substantial evidence that a larger number of abortion providers in a state increases the abortion rate within the state, primarily through inducing cross-state migration, with nonhospital providers being particularly important. Political affiliation variables have mixed effects and are difficult to interpret. Controlling for state fixed effects, the effect of changes in demographic and economic variables over time is typically small, although a rise in unemployment has consistently positive effects on abortion rates.
Keywords: abortion; Medicaid funding; state policies; demographics; economic factors
JEL Codes: I18; H75
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Medicaid funding restrictions (I18) | lower in-state abortion rates (J13) |
| Medicaid funding restrictions (I18) | higher abortion rates in nearby states (J13) |
| Medicaid funding restrictions (I18) | 22% of publicly funded abortions do not occur (J13) |
| Availability of abortion providers (J13) | increased abortion rates (J13) |
| Increases in unemployment (J64) | increased abortion rates (J13) |
| State per capita income (H79) | increased abortion rates (J13) |
| Increases in marriage rates (J12) | decreased abortion rates (J13) |
| Increases in black population share (R23) | decreased abortion rates (J13) |
| Parental consent laws (K36) | minimal effects on aggregate abortion rates (J18) |