Working Paper: NBER ID: w4715
Authors: Alberto F. Alesina; Edward L. Glaeser
Abstract: Using theory, case studies, and cross-country evidence, we investigate the factors behind the concentration of a nation's urban population in a single city. High tariffs, high costs of internal trade, and low levels of international trade increase the degree of concentration. Even more clearly, politics (such as the degree of instability) determines urban primacy. Dictatorships have central cities that are, on average, 50 percent larger than their democratic counterparts. Using information about the timing of city growth, and a series of instruments, we conclude that the predominant causality is from political factors to urban concentration, not from concentration to political change.
Keywords: urban concentration; political economy; urban primacy
JEL Codes: R11; D72
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| political factors (P16) | urban concentration (R23) |
| political instability (O17) | size of a nation's central city (R12) |
| type of regime (P26) | size of a nation's central city (R12) |
| higher tariffs (F19) | urban concentration (R23) |
| reduced levels of international trade (F69) | urban concentration (R23) |
| decrease in agricultural employment (J43) | urban concentration (R23) |
| urban concentration (R23) | political factors (P16) |