Working Paper: NBER ID: w4665
Authors: Sylvester J. Schieber; John B. Shoven
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the aging demographic structure of the U.S. on its funded private pension system. A 75-year outlook is produced for the pension system corresponding to the 75-year forecast of the Social Security system. The primary result is that the pension system will cease being a source of national saving in the third decade of the next century. The paper speculates about the impact this may have on asset prices.
Keywords: population aging; private pension funds; asset markets
JEL Codes: J11; H55
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| aging demographic structure (J11) | pension system ceasing to be a source of national saving (H55) |
| pension system ceasing to be a source of national saving (H55) | decreased national savings (E21) |
| decreased national savings (E21) | impact on asset prices (G19) |
| aging population (J14) | impact on asset prices (G19) |
| retirement of baby boom generation (J26) | pressures on social security and private pension systems (H55) |