Working Paper: NBER ID: w4638
Authors: Robert W. Fogel
Abstract: This paper sketches a theory of the secular decline in morbidity and mortality that takes account of changes in human physiology since 1700. The synergism between technological and physiological improvements has produced a form of human evolution, much more rapid than natural selection, which is still ongoing in both OECD and developing countries. Thermodynamic and physiological aspects of economic growth are defined and their impact on growth rates is assessed. Implications of this theory for population forecasting, measurement of national income, demand for leisure, pension policies, and for the demand for health care are considered.
Keywords: economic growth; population theory; mortality; morbidity; health economics
JEL Codes: I12; N30; O10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Technological improvements (O33) | decline in mortality rates (J11) |
| Physiological changes (I19) | decline in mortality rates (J11) |
| decline in mortality rates (J11) | economic growth (O49) |
| Improved nutrition (I15) | better health outcomes (I14) |
| better health outcomes (I14) | increased labor productivity (J24) |
| Chronic malnutrition (I32) | high mortality rates (I12) |
| Improvements in nutritional intake (I15) | better health outcomes (I14) |
| better health outcomes (I14) | economic productivity (O49) |