Working Paper: NBER ID: w4345
Authors: Claudia Goldin
Abstract: Anti-immigrant forces almost succeeded in passing restrictive legislation in 1897, but their plan did not ultimately materialize for another twenty years. During that time 17 million Europeans from among the poorest nations came to the United States. This paper explores the economic and political forces that propped the door open for those twenty years, as well as the factors that eventually shut it Economic downturns and their consequent unemployment almost always brought demands for restriction. The flood of immigrants eventually did result in large negative effects on the wages of native-born workers. But the political clout of immigrants was strengthened by the reinforcing nature of their flows. Cities having large numbers of the foreign born received a disproportionate share of immigrants during the 1900 to 1910 period. After 1910, however, immigrant flows were diluting. This factor and the negative impact of immigrants on native wages were important in the passage of restrictionist legislation, although the rural heartland of America was pro-restriction from the l890s.
Keywords: Immigration; Economic Policy; Political Economy
JEL Codes: J61; N31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| economic downturns (F44) | increased demands for immigration restriction (K37) |
| rising unemployment (J64) | increased demands for immigration restriction (K37) |
| negative economic impacts of immigration on native wages (K37) | political push for immigration restriction (K37) |
| declining political power of immigrant groups (K37) | votes for restriction (D72) |
| negative wage effects for lower-skilled workers after 1910 (F66) | votes for restriction (D72) |
| greater increase in wages in cities with high percentage of foreign-born residents (J39) | lower sentiment for restriction (E66) |