Working Paper: NBER ID: w3912
Authors: John C. Ham; Robert J. Lalonde
Abstract: Using data from a social experiment, we estimate the impact of training on the duration of employment and unemployment spells for AFDC recipients. Although an experimental design eliminates the need to construct a comparison group for this analysis, simple comparisons between the average durations or the transition rates of treatments' and controls' employment and unemployment spells lead to biased estimates of the effects of training. We present and implement several econometric approaches that demonstrate the importance of and correct for these biases. For the training program studied in the paper, we find that it raised employment rates because employment durations increased. In contrast, training did not lead to shorter unemployment spells.
Keywords: Training; Employment Durations; Unemployment Durations; Experimental Data
JEL Codes: J68; C21
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Training program (M53) | Increased employment rates (J68) |
| Training program (M53) | Longer employment durations among trainees (J24) |
| Training program (M53) | No significant effect on unemployment durations (J65) |
| Training program (M53) | Helped trainees secure jobs more quickly (M53) |
| Training program (M53) | Retain jobs longer (J63) |