Working Paper: NBER ID: w31966
Authors: Fernando V. Ferreira; Joseph Gyourko
Abstract: We study the relationship between housing supply and political partisanship in US cities using a new database of mayoral elections combined with local housing permits since 1980. Endogeneity of which party holds the mayoral office is addressed via a regression discontinuity design that relies on closely contested races between Republicans and Democrats. We find that partisanship has no effect on the supply of single and multifamily housing despite recent increases in extreme partisanship, corroborating that US cities follow the median voter. This indicates that solutions to housing affordability will not be dependent upon the political party in power at the local level.
Keywords: political partisanship; housing supply; US cities; mayoral elections
JEL Codes: H7; P43; R0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Partisanship (D72) | Housing Supply (R31) |
| Democrat Mayors (J59) | Housing Permits (R31) |
| Republican Mayors (R59) | Housing Permits (R31) |
| Growing Partisanship (D72) | Housing Permitting Intensity (R38) |
| Median Voter Preferences (D79) | Housing Supply (R31) |