Working Paper: NBER ID: w31962
Authors: David Cesarini; Erik Lindqvist; Robert Östling; Christofer Schroeder
Abstract: There is a well-established negative gradient between economic status and crime, but its underlying causal mechanisms are not well understood. We use data on four Swedish lotteries matched to data on criminal convictions to gauge the causal effect of financial windfalls on player’s own crime and their children’s delinquency. We \nestimate a positive but statistically insignificant effect of lottery wealth on players’ own conviction risk. Our estimates allow us to rule out effects one fifth as large as the cross-sectional gradient between income and crime. We also estimate a less precise null effect of parental lottery wealth on child delinquency.
Keywords: Wealth; Crime; Lottery; Criminal Behavior; Delinquency
JEL Codes: K0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Players' own conviction risk (D81) | Child delinquency (J13) |
| Lottery wealth (H27) | Conviction risk (across types of offenses) (K14) |
| Wealth (D31) | Criminal behavior (K42) |
| Lottery wealth (H27) | Players' own conviction risk (D81) |
| Lottery wealth (H27) | Child delinquency (J13) |