Working Paper: NBER ID: w31957
Authors: Jason Fletcher; Hamid Noghanibehambari
Abstract: Several strands of research document the life-cycle impacts of lead exposure during the critical period of children’s development. Yet little is known about long-run effects of lead exposure during early-life on old-age mortality outcomes. This study exploits the staggered installation of water systems across 761 cities in the US over the first decades of the 20th century combined with cross-city differences in materials used in water pipelines to identify lead and non-lead cities. An event-study analysis suggests that the impacts are more concentrated on children exposed during in-utero up to age 10. The results of difference-in-difference analysis suggests an intent-to-treat effect of 2.7 months reduction in old-age longevity for fully exposed cohorts. A heterogeneity analysis reveals effects that are 3.5 and 2 times larger among the nonwhite subpopulation and low socioeconomic status families, respectively. We also find reductions in education and socioeconomic standing during early adulthood as candidate mechanism. Finally, we employ WWII enlistment data and observe reductions in height-for-age among lead-exposed cohorts.
Keywords: lead exposure; old-age mortality; public health; socioeconomic status
JEL Codes: I1; I18; J1; N0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| lead exposure (L72) | education and socioeconomic standing in early adulthood (I24) |
| early-life lead exposure (J79) | height-for-age reductions (I14) |
| lead exposure (L72) | negative effects on nonwhite populations (J15) |
| lead exposure (L72) | negative effects on low socioeconomic status families (I24) |
| early-life lead exposure (J79) | old-age longevity (J26) |
| lead exposure in utero and early childhood (J13) | old-age longevity (J26) |