Working Paper: NBER ID: w31952
Authors: M. Scott Taylor; Rolf Weder
Abstract: Human beings' domination of the planet has not been kind to many species worldwide. This is to be expected. Humans have radically altered natural landscapes, harvested heavily from the ocean, and altered the climate in an unprecedented way. Recent concerns over the extent and rate of biodiversity loss have led to renewed interest in extinction outcomes and speculation concerning humans' potential role in any future mass extinction. In this paper, we discuss the economic causes of extinction in two high-profile cases - Sharks and the North American Buffalo - and then extend our framework to allow for multiple species and the possibility of mass extinction. Throughout, we present evidence drawn from authoritative data sources with a focus on shark populations to ground our analysis. Despite large gaps in our data, the available evidence suggests extinction risks are rising for many species and policy is slow to react.
Keywords: extinction; mass extinction; biodiversity loss; sharks; buffalo
JEL Codes: Q01; Q20; Q27; Q5; Q57
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Technological progress (O49) | increased harvesting capabilities (Q15) |
| increased harvesting capabilities (Q15) | species extinction (Q57) |
| Rising incomes (F61) | increased demand for shark fin soup (D12) |
| increased demand for shark fin soup (D12) | decline of shark populations (Q22) |
| Habitat loss and invasive species (Q57) | extinction risks (Q30) |
| Demand concentration (R22) | serial depletion across populations (J11) |
| Habitat degradation (Q53) | lowers population growth rates (J11) |
| low population growth rates (J11) | increases extinction vulnerability (Q57) |